Nigeria’s headline growth figures for year 2018 were released Tuesday, with y/y GDP printing at 1.9%, narrowly beating analysts estimates of 1.8% y/y and that of IMF at 1.9% y/y.
Notably, average daily oil production stood at 1.91 mb/d in Q4, down from the 1.95mb/d recorded over the corresponding period in 2017 and 1.94mb/d recorded in Q3’18.
As such, the oil sector contracted 1.6% y/y in Q4’18 (FY’18: 1.1%), contributing 7.1% to real GDP in Q4.
Growth in the Non-oil sector however strengthened in the year with GDP printing at 2.0% y/y for FY’18, comparing favourably with 0.5% y/y growth in FY’17.
On the other hand, the Agriculture sector recorded slower growth y/y, with FY’18 GDP at 2.1% y/y, weaker than 3.4% y/y recorded in FY’17 as crop production continues to recover from the effects of social disruptions and flooding in the Middle Belt.
Vetiva capital erstwhile forecast for 2019 was 2.7% y/y, driven by expectations of an upswing in agriculture, while oil production remains limited due to OPEC-sanctioned cuts.