India’s Oil Demand Growth Set to Surpass China’s

India’s oil demand growth is expected to exceed China’s for the first time in 2024, and continue in 2025. According to Kang Wu, global head of macro and oil demand research at SPGCI, India’s oil demand in the current year grew by 180,000 barrels per day, surpassing China’s growth at 148,000 bpd. India’s oil demand is expected to increase by 3.2% Y/Y in 2025 compared to a 1.7% clip by China.

Over the past couple of decades, China has carried the lion’s share of global oil demand growth thanks to the country’s remarkable economic boom.

However, that is beginning to change. The factors that helped sustain China’s rapid growth since the global financial crisis are unlikely to be replicated in the next decade, particularly in sectors of property construction and local government investment. Indeed, China’s economic slowdown has mainly manifested in the property sector’s decline, hardly surprising considering that the industry represented 20 to 25 percent of GDP at its peak.

But China is now poised to lose its prominence in global oil markets.

“China’s role as a global oil demand growth engine is fading fast,’’ Emma Richards, senior analyst at London-based Fitch Solutions Ltd, has told The Times of India. According to the analyst, over the next decade, China’s share of emerging market oil demand growth will decline from nearly 50% to just 15% while India’s share will double to 24%.

But it’s not just a dramatic slowdown in its economy that will make China a less important player in global oil markets. The country’s booming EV sector will rapidly lower oil demand much faster than India’s: China sold 6.1 million EVs in 2022 compared with just 48,000 sold in India. India is nowhere near as aggressive with its clean energy push compared to China. Last year,  India’s coal minister declared that the country has no intention of ditching coal from its energy mix any time soon. Minister Pralhad Joshi said that coal will continue to play an important role in India until at least 2040, referring to the fuel as an affordable source of energy for which demand has yet to peak in India.

 Oilprice.com