China is set to import this month the highest crude oil volumes since August, as oil prices slumped amid demand concerns in early September when most November cargoes were likely contracted.
The world’s top crude oil importer is estimated to import about 11.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude, Reuters columnist Clyde Russell reports, citing tanker-tracking and port data compiled by LSEG Oil Research and commodity analysts Kpler.
If these estimates pan out, China would have imported in November the highest crude volumes since the August imports of 11.56 million bpd.
The market has yet to see actual signs of a recovery in Chinese oil demand, which has trended lower than forecasts for most of the year.
October marked the sixth consecutive month in which crude cargo arrivals have lagged behind the imports in the same months of 2023, official Chinese data showed in early November.
Last month, China imported a total of 10.53 million bpd of crude oil, per data from the General Administration of Customs. That’s 9% lower compared to October 2023 and 2% below the import level of 11.07 million bpd in September 2024.
Reduced capacity at a PetroChina refinery and continued weak demand from China’s independent refiners, the so-called teapots, weighed on the imports into the world’s top crude importer in October.
Underwhelming demand this year has lowered oil refining output as independent Chinese refiners are particularly sensitive to low margins and prefer to reduce refinery throughput when margins and demand are weak.
Refinery run rates in China fell for the seventh month in a row in October, down by 4.6% from a year earlier, data from the country’s statistics agency showed last week.
Oilprice.com