A few hours to Nigeria’s presidential elections on 16 February, Nigerians were shocked to learn that the elections had been postponed. Disbelief and outrage greeted the announcement; even Muhammadu Buhari, the beleaguered president of Nigeria professed surprise and disappointment at the postponement.
Few seemed to believe him; is actions and that of his party, the APC, were beginning to look like those of a losing underdog.
Atiku Abubakar, his main opponent, riding the wave of discontent and contempt for Buhari’s tenure was packing stadiums and venues all over the nation and dominating the cyber and air waves with messages that resonate with deeply disappointed Nigerians.
Many seem desperate to get rid of Buhari, a man whose tenure has been plagued by gaffes, unforced errors, incompetence and a puzzling cluelessness that seemed to point to the challenges with his age and health.
A week later on Saturday 23 February 2019, Nigerians headed to the polls once again to determine his fate.
It doesn’t look good for him. Even now that he has won, the groundswell of support that his opponent Atiku (as he is popularly called) has enjoyed so far is a stunning rebuke to someone that in 2015 was seen as Nigeria’s messiah.
Buhari’s fall from grace to grass, as we say in Nigeria, has been meteoric and eerily mimics his first coming as a military dictator in the mid-80s. Just like in 2015, he was welcomed as a saviour of sorts, but by the time he was toppled in a military coup, he was so reviled for his draconian rule and failed economic policies, relieved Nigerians rushed into the streets ululating with joy.
In 2015, many Nigerians, fed up with life under president Goodluck Jonathan were willing to forgive Buhari’s past and give him a second chance. Even, the legendary Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka who in 2007 wrote an epic piece about why Buhari did not deserve to be Nigeria’s leader ever again, recanted and cautiously endorsed Buhari.
This time around, he endorsed neither Buhari nor Atiku but has called for “a third force” of new leaders to take over from the tried and tired.
Indeed, most Nigerians will tell you honestly that in four years under Buhari, Nigeria has lost ground in pretty much every index of governance.
Inflation has skyrocketed, his much vaunted war on corruption is largely seen to be selective, and in any case to the extent that it has driven money off the streets, few are impressed.
More worrying is the nationwide insecurity as state-sanctioned murders compete with a general inability to rein in Boko Haram.
Today, Jonathan, his predecessor, who was seen as incompetent, is riding a wave of popularity as many now remember his policies fondly. Buhari makes Jonathan look competent? That takes genius, folks would have said four years ago.
In many ways, Buhari is the face of many things wrong with governance in Nigeria. Accountability is sorely lacking. Money remains a corrupting influence and many Nigerian intellectuals and writers of stature, especially those who fought a dictatorship to a standstill in the 90s are now part of the corruption and incompetence that defines Nigerian governance.
Many of them are on the payroll of corrupt politicians and eagerly write their talking points.
Nigeria needs a robust army of citizens who can afford to hold politicians and top level bureaucrats accountable. Atiku is no saint himself, he disputes credible allegations that he made his wealth from corrupt means, and for a long time it was alleged that he was banned from entering the United States over a bribery scandal.
However, he has run a well-oiled campaign, offering messages of hope that resonate with many people.
So, what form of governance is best suited to the Nigerian state?
Since 1999, western-style democracy seems to have benefited only a few.
Many issues that Nigerians promised to tackle under democracy have been ignored as former champions of structural reform have become part of the status quo.
The reality is that Nigeria needs an extreme makeover. Many Nigerian institutions are colonial relics that must be overhauled to meet the standards of modern states – the bloated civil service, the police, the army, the educational institutions and the health system.
Long neglected by rulers and enabling intellectuals, they have become moribund, giving rise to huge demands for better quality but expensive offerings abroad.
The wealthy and connected send their children to school abroad and their families attend medical facilities abroad. The poor are left to tend to themselves in broken institutions. There is also the need to restructure governance in today’s Nigeria.
The centre is too strong and expectations of the centre are out of sync with the reality – which is that it can only do so much.
Is Atiku the messiah? Few people think so, they just want to staunch the bleeding. That is why, for them, Buhari must retire to his hometown of Daura. These Nigerians may not get their wish this time, but it won’t be for lack of trying.
.The Independent