••• Power grid capacity to remain weak due to gas
constraints, transmission losses
Nigeria’s gas production will likely remain stagnant in the second quarter of this year, the Society of Energy Editors (SEE) has predicted in its recently released Second Quarter 2025 Outlook for the Nigerian Energy Sector.
The Society also expects the national grid capacity to remain weak (5,000 MW) due to gas constraints, and transmission losses.
it also said gas flaring penalties might tighten in the second quarter of 2025, forcing operators to invest more in gas utilisation.
According to the SEE, national gas production would likely remain unchanged as there would be no major improvement in supply in the quarter unless key projects, such as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company/Shell Petroleum Development Company’s ANOH Gas plant and the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben, OB3, pipeline come on stream.
On gas exports, the Society noted that the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas, NLNG, which accounts for about seven percent of the global LNG supply, was facing rising competition in the market, including from Mozambique, Tanzania and the US shale gas.
The Society also predicted that Nigeria’s LNG exports would remain steady at 20 million metric tons per annum, MTPA, “unless major pipeline attacks occur”, adding that spot LNG prices might rise, improving the country’s revenues.
The Society projected “marginal growth in CNG usage (mostly commercial vehicles) and possible government incentives (tax breaks, subsidies) to boost adoption”.
The Society of Energy Editors also projected that Nigeria’s LPG consumption, standing at 1.3 million metric tons, MT, in 2024, was rising, but added that penetration remained low with only 30% of households using the product.
Furthermore, the Second Quarter 2025 Outlook stated that Nigeria holds the largest proven gas reserves in Africa, estimated at 209 trillion cubic feet, TCF, but noted that “utilisation remains suboptimal due to underinvestment in upstream gas infrastructure (processing plants pipelines); persistent gas flaring (8% of total production, despite government’s 2030 zero-flare target); and feedstock shortages for NLNG due to pipeline vandalism (e.g., Trans-Forcados, Escravos-Lagos Pipeline disruptions).”