At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at just over $65 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $61.71 per barrel, after on Friday the Trump administration announced a tariff exemption for certain electronics and semiconductors. Optimism wavered this week, however, as Washington launched investigations into pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports in what the media reported was part of setting the stage for tariffs on these two groups of products. President Trump himself said semiconductors were on the line for tariffs.

Meanwhile, Chinese crude oil imports topped 12 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, the highest volume since August 2023, as flows of Iranian and Russian crude rebounded from the lows seen early this year with the U.S. sanctions.

The country took in a total of 51.41 million metric tons of crude oil in March, data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs showed on Monday.

That’s equivalent to 12.1 million bpd in crude arrivals last month, per Reuters calculations. The import volumes in March were the highest since August 2023 and were much higher than the 10.38 million bpd in crude imports in January-February 2025 or the 11.55 million bpd crude imported in March 2024.

That’s a reversal of the import trend from the first two months of the year and a reason for optimism. Countering that sentiment, OPEC on Monday reviseddown its demand forecast for the year. Citing escalating trade tensions and weaker-than-expected economic indicators, the cartel now anticipates a demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day for 2025, down 150,000 bpd from its previous projection. Similarly, the 2026 forecast has been adjusted downward to 1.28 million bpd.

Oilprice.com