The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says world oil demand growth in 2021 now stands at 5.7 mb/d.

 According to OPEC, this reflects slower than anticipated demand from China and India in third quarter of 2021 (3Q21).

OPEC Secretary General, Mr. Mohammad Barkindo made the remark at the 182nd OPEC video conference. Barkindo noted that global oil demand was estimated to reach 96.4 mb/d in 2021 while world total demand in 2022 was estimated to reach 100.6 mb/d, around 0.56 mb/d above 2019 levels. “Non-OPEC liquids supply is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2021, to average 63.6 mb/d.

“The main growth drivers of 2021 are Canada, Russia, China, Norway, Brazil and Guyana. The forecast for non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is 3.0 mb/d, to average 66.7 mb/d. Russia and the U.S. contribute increments of 1.0 mb/d and 0.9 mb/d, respectively. Turning to stocks, Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) commercial stocks stand at 2,773 mb, which is 174 mb below the 2015-2019 average with crude accounting for 148 mb and products 26 mb of this.

He disclosed that OECD commercial stocks in October stood at 61.6 days, 0.7 days lower than the average of 2015-2019. He underscored the need to consider the market implications of last week’s announcement of the possible coordinated release of 70 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves of several consuming countries.

Barkindo noted that the implications of such uncertainties for excess supply in first to second quarter of 2022 (1Q-2Q2022) should be carefully monitored.

He listed future of monetary policies, inflationary pressures, possible reintroduction of lockdowns, vaccine uptake rates, vaccine-resistance of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and supply-chain bottlenecks as some of the uncertainties clouding the picture.

According to the OPEC scribe, these uncertainties and implications on the global oil demand and supply balance are analysed in a scenario analysis as reflected in the Economic Commission Board (ECB) report. In an overview of market developments, as discussed at the 136th Meeting of the ECB, he recalled that over 55 per cent of the global population has received at least one vaccine against the coronavirus.

Over 262 million people have been sickened and there have been over 5.2 million fatalities, according to official statistics.

The global economic growth forecasts for both 2021 and 2022 stand at 5.6 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively. According to Barkindo, while a multitude of challenges to the economic recovery remain, the world economy continues improving, albeit at disparate speeds among many regions. He said that the emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and the reintroduction of lockdowns in many regions of the world constitute the main public-health related uncertainties.